Assessing Weather Event Damage in Forensic Engineering: Data Sources and Challenges

Chad Williams; Doug Heady; Ryan Allen

doi:10.51501/jotnafe.v42i1.887

Authors

Chad T. Williams, P.E., D.F.E., M.L.E. Associate Member https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6608-0481
Doug Heady https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6033-888X
Ryan Allen https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7441-9637

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51501/jotnafe.v42i1.887

Keywords:

Hail, tornado, forensic engineering, forensic meteorology, weather, weather event, damage assessment, meteorological data, NOAA, win, NCEI, NCEI-SED, SPC-LSR, NWS

Abstract

Forensic engineering evaluations often involve assessing damage from weather events such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. A crucial aspect of these evaluations is verifying whether the reported weather event occurred on or around the specified date and determining relevant meteorological parameters from the available historical data. Two primary sources of historical meteorological data are the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center Local Storm Reports (SPC-LSR) and the National Centers for Environmental Information Storm Events Database (NCEI-SED). These databases rely on reports from various sources and may sometimes provide imprecise or inconsistent data. Therefore, forensic engineers should not rely solely on these sources but instead use them in conjunction with data or observations from multiple other sources.

Author Biographies

Doug Heady

Doug is a skilled broadcaster and forensic meteorologist with 25 years of weather forecasting experience. With focus on extreme weather, accurate forecasts, and an expert in long range forecasting. Doug has covered several extreme weather events over the years including but not limited to the Tornado Outbreak on May 4, 2003, the Picher, OK Tornado on May 10, 2008, the EF-5 Joplin, MO Tornado on May 22, 2011, and the Carl Junction, MO Tornado on May 22, 2019. On top of numerous tornadoes, Doug has covered a series of huge snow and ice storms, including the Midwest blizzard on February 1, 2011. In addition, Doug created Weather Savants, which assists clients with long range forecast months in advance. Weather Savants partners with Weather2020 with additional clients for long range forecasting. Doug developed the LRC/Heady Pattern, which is the most accurate long range forecasting model to date. Doug also created an online stream casting platform providing extreme weather coverage across the central plains.

Ryan Allen

Ryan is a skilled and versatile meteorologist with a strong academic foundation and hands-on experience in forensic meteorology. Ryan graduated from Mississippi State University with a bachelor’s degree in Broadcast & Operational Meteorology, earning straight A's in senior-level meteorology courses. Ryan worked part time as an independent contractor in forensic meteorology while completing school to further craft and diversify a professional skillset.

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